Is There Good News for Netflix?

After a five-month descent, Netflix finally flashed something different: heavy institutional-scale volume, not just a news reaction. That’s when a falling knife turns into a controlled catch, the moment probability shifts in your favor.

People often ask me, “How do you know when the timing to buy has a higher probability?”

Netflix is the perfect teaching moment.

For almost five months, NFLX hasn’t been “dipping.”  It’s been sliding, consistently, relentlessly.  Anyone who owns it has felt every step of that descent. You don’t need a chart when your account is already telling you the story.

That’s why investors say: don’t catch a falling knife.  A tiny bounce can lure you in…like me with my sweet addiction “just one piece of candy…” and suddenly the whole bag is gone.  Small upticks in a downtrend can trick you into thinking the worst is over, only to cut deeper.

Yes, there was a big headline this week about Netflix possibly buying Warner Bros.  That may have added spark, but news alone doesn’t create this kind of footprint.

What matters, what really changed, is the volume.